Risk Reality — Olympic Terrorist Threat Is Probable

Russia faces an almost unavoidably high risk of terrorist attacks at the Sochi Olympics, and whether we have any sympathy for the Russians or not, American and allied athletes, families, and supporters will be in the inevitable line of fire.

While the US is more aware of our own encounters with terrorists on 9/11 and in the Boston Marathon bombing, and even our own Atlanta Olympics bombing issue, LIGNET reports that last year in Russia, 659 people were killed and 490 wounded in 182 terrorist attacks. From 1992 to the end of 2011, 1,415 terrorist attacks in the region were attributed to North Caucasus groups. Some of those terrorist attacks made world headlines. The typical attacks involved explosives (including radiation dispersing bombs) and hostage situations with high casualty counts.

The US is taking the potential threat seriously enough to pressure the Russians to allow US input and involvement in security planning — a request that the Russians have not yet found acceptable. In the mean time, the US has reportedly deployed two US Navy vessels to the area in case an evacuation of US citizens becomes necessary.

US news services reported today that many US athletes are asking their families and friends to stay home in order to relieve fears and distractions for the athletes.

For Risk Managers and emergency planners in the US, the situation offers an opportunity to reassess our own emergency plans and perhaps a time to prepare psychologically for the potential of violence at the games.

Sadly, there are those who will use any terrorist events at the Olympics to push for more reduction in US freedom and privacy in exchange for the alluring promise of greater security — a promise that may be well-intentioned, but just as false and potentially dangerous as that of the mythical sirens whose hypnotic call brought sailors to destruction.

We need to watch the Russian efforts and the problems they face, because it is all but certain that we will face the same challenges again all too soon.

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